Disclaimer

This website is intended for use by wholesale clients only, as defined in section 716G of the Corporations Act 2001. If you are not classified as a ‘wholesale client’ , you may not be eligible to access or invest in the products offered. By proceeding to use this website, you acknowledge that you qualify as a wholesale client and understand that the content and services provided here are exclusively for wholesale client use.

I CONSIDER MYSELF A WHOLESALE INVESTOR

News and Insights

Filters (3)
Sort
Showing 45 of 45
Clear all filters
February 2024 – Market Commentary
14 March 2024
February 2024 – Market Commentary
14 March 2024

February 2024 – Market Commentary

The Fund delivered +0.70% in February, 9.51% over 12 months and 6.84% annualised since inception (April 2016), continuing to deliver over 5% net return above the RBA cash rate.

The Fund carried a higher than normal cash holding last month as we declined to participate in a transaction towards the end of the due diligence process. We spent many months structuring this transaction only to find out late stage that one of the risk mitigants we sought was not granted, therefore we made the difficult decision to withdraw. However, we believe this is in investors long term best interests and consistent with our investment philosophy: capital preservation is the first priority of the Fund.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Returns are net of fees, excluding tax, and assume reinvestment of all distributions. Returns greater than one year are annualised. Inception: April 2016.

As interest in fixed income investments and private credit continues to surge, the market is witnessing a parallel growth in the number of new fund managers looking to ‘make hay while the sun is shining’. This development has led to a common question from both potential and existing investors: what distinguishes Manning Asset Management in this increasingly competitive landscape?

This month we wanted to touch on three of these key differentiators.

  1. 8 year track record of delivering a strong and consistent income stream to investors

For the past eight years, the Manning Monthly Income Fund has consistently achieved its target return of RBA cash rate +5%, net of fees. Year after year, this performance demonstrates the Fund’s ability to deliver strong and consistent returns in the form of a monthly cash income stream, while maintaining an acute focus on capital preservation. We are pleased to be entering our ninth year of the strategy and endeavour to continue the Fund’s track record of never having a negative monthly return from credit losses.

  1. Skin in the game and alignment of incentives

The Manning team is not just a Fund manager but also a substantial investor in the Fund, investing alongside our clients on the same terms. This shared risk aligns our commitment to capital stability and our careful selection of investment opportunities that we believe will perform throughout the economic cycle. We also ensure that all fees, interest, and other related benefits are passed directly to investors. We reject the practice of retaining establishment or upfront fees or other such payments made when investing in a new transaction. This approach removes any potential conflict of interest, allowing us to focus solely on safeguarding investor interests and investing in transactions that best fit the fund’s risk-return profile.

  1. Diversification

A key component of our investment strategy is diversification. We ensure that investor capital is not overly concentrated in any one sector or individual loan. The Fund invests in a significant number of underlying loans (19,323 as at 29 February 2024), thereby reducing the risk of unforeseen economic events having a material impact on the Fund. The Fund’s largest single asset currently accounts for 1.72% of the Fund. This approach mitigates concentration risk and ensures that issues with individual loans do not negatively impact investor outcomes.

As a testament to delivering on our stated investment objective, 90% of our investors from 5 years ago remain in the Funds today, and circa 93% of all investors remain invested today.

Market Commentary
March 14, 2024
3/14/2024
read on
January 2024 – Market Commentary
14 February 2024
January 2024 – Market Commentary
14 February 2024

January 2024 – Market Commentary

As we move through Q1 of 2024, many of our clients are eager to understand our views on what this year may hold for the Fund and how we are positioning the portfolio. Foundationally, one needs to understand how we invest capital being bedded within an appreciation for why investors have invested with us over the prior 8 years. That being a desire for strong and consistent returns delivered as a monthly income stream and an acute focus on capital preservation. While the asset class freely delivers income via regular coupons, our primary efforts focus on capital preservation.

Long-time investors will observe our active management (see the below chart) by moving in and out of Australian credit sectors such as mortgages and consumer and business loans, navigating the portfolio away from areas where the risk profile is building or as significant opportunities present elsewhere. We deliberately avoid areas that we believe shall not perform through the cycle, such as construction finance, rather favouring assets that would be attractive to a wide variety of potential buyers in the unlikely event of the asset not performing. We are constantly evolving our approach, although the overarching principles remain unchanged and, over 8 years, have resulted in no negative months from credit/loss of capital.

Continuing our ethos of being a ‘through-the-cycle’ manager and Fund, we have little doubt that 2024 will contain isolated pockets of weakness within sectors and industries, which, in many cases, have been building for some time, and these are areas the Fund looks to avoid. Examining the Fund’s holdings, the portfolio is offering our investors historically elevated returns, and we are pleased to say the Fund isn’t currently displaying any areas of weakness.

We look forward to working on behalf of our clients in 2024 and delivering another year of strong and consistent income-based returns.

Market Commentary
February 14, 2024
2/14/2024
read on
4 potholes fixed income investors need to avoid
12 February 2024
4 potholes fixed income investors need to avoid
12 February 2024

4 potholes fixed income investors need to avoid

Successful investing is as much about avoiding losers as picking winners, which means dodging the following pitfalls is a good start.

The secret to successful investing in the fixed income and credit markets is simply avoiding the issues or potholes. While we freely admit that 90% of the time, we are jumping at shadows (perceived risks) that turn out to be risks offset by other factors, we believe this approach remains prudent given how costly that 10% can be to our investors, particularly those looking to the asset class for income and capital stability.

In the following wire, I identify some of the key things fixed-income investors should watch out for. The first of these revolves around some mistakes I made early in my investment career, which have since sharpened my focus.

Pothole 1: No skin in the game

Alignment of incentives is crucial – put another way, be wary of those offering investment deals if they don’t have skin in the game. This is my top investment consideration, at least partly because this Principal-Agent problem was core to some of my investment blunders in my earlier years.

In short, if a firm that offers me an opportunity has a strong reputation in the market, is incentivised primarily by how the investment performs (i.e. fees), and the person pitching it to me is personally invested in equivalent or more subordinated terms, I’m more inclined to listen.

On the other hand, I avoid those who don’t have much at stake by way of reputation, economics, or “hurt money”. A simple question, ‘Why is that person pitching me this investment?’ can lead to the most profound and informative insights.

Pothole 2: Large loans

We’ve spent decades managing multi-billion dollar loan books on behalf of Australian and international banks, having seen both the good and not-so-good times. But a common theme throughout is the avoidance of large loans, with loan size considered relative to the borrower’s size, credit rating, financial position and other factors. However, it ranges anywhere from a consumer loan that exceeds $100,000 to a property-backed loan exceeding $10 million.

Large loans are riskier because they typically require a refinancing event, unlike smaller loans, which can often fully amortise down to $0.

They also fit the credit appetite of an increasingly small group of lenders as they get larger (minimising the parties who will refinance them). In our experience, avoiding large loans and investing in a diversified portfolio can materially de-risk one’s portfolio, maximising return potential.

Pothole 3: Highly leveraged counterparties/borrowers

Thanks to a higher RBA cash rate and credit spreads, the borrowing cost has almost doubled compared to two years ago. Despite this, we haven’t seen a material reduction in the use of debt funding. This begs the question – why?

Understanding why and, importantly, what forms of debt those counterparties and borrowers have becomes crucial to avoid adverse selection. That is, capital going to those with the most acute borrowing needs who are in the most acute predicament (aka, poor quality credits). For example, certain borrowers have high borrowing requirements given their sector, business model or funding (cheap) access that justifies higher leverage.

Others with a lower capital base, who can only access more expensive debt, are less justified and symbolic of the borrower’s financial position.

Alternatively, investors could avoid highly indebted counterparties and borrowers who use expensive unsecured or short-term borrowings to maximise the chance of positive selection/financing of the best credits.

Pothole 4: Duration isn’t a free lunch

Over the prior 18 months, investors commonly ask us whether we believe Australia’s cash rate has peaked. This is commonly used as a gauge of whether or not to add duration to a portfolio.

I believe actively managing duration can add alpha to portfolios, so it’s a worthy pursuit. But the additional risk this can add is often overlooked. Depending on the investor, this additional risk may be acceptable. But we commonly find that risk is being taken by a sleeve of one’s portfolio that is viewed as low risk, anchoring absolute returns, and offering diversification.

Adding duration over the prior three years has seen investors lose around 10% of their portfolio’s balance, a significant loss of capital. When adjusted for the opportunity cost, that money could have been invested in a short-duration portfolio (which has for the most part printed very healthy returns). Duration is no free lunch.

An important role to play

Using the above guide and asking salient questions can provide a rich sense of whether your holdings are well-positioned for 2024. Should investors avoid the issues, it’s hard to argue that credit/fixed income that can offer expected returns of up to 10% per annum doesn’t have an important role to play in 2024.

News and Insight
February 12, 2024
2/12/2024
read on
December 2023 – Market Commentary
22 January 2024
December 2023 – Market Commentary
22 January 2024

December 2023 – Market Commentary

The Fund delivered +0.80% in December, 9.43% over 12 months and 6.79% annualised since inception (April 2016), continuing to deliver over 5% net return above the RBA cash rate.

There are several Fund features that are important to investors, two key elements include the significant number of underlying loans within the portfolio (circa 15,000+ as at 31 December 2023) and diversification that this achieves, plus how we pick the right assets to perform through the economic cycle and structure them correctly. Both these foundational pillars have delivered consistent investor returns since the inception of the Fund in April 2016.

Structuring refers to the contractual obligations we put in place to control risk, and if those risk limits exceed our tolerance, they give rise to certain rights. By way of a simplified example, Manning will determine what level of arrears we are willing to tolerate when investing in a pool of underlying assets. The counterparty seeking finance must ensure those arrears levels are not exceeded. If these set levels are breached due to counterparty-specific or industry-wide issues, Manning would typically have a right to require that counterparty to repurchase some or all of those assets in arrears, or the facility would need to be closed and paid down. As closing the facility would be detrimental to that counterparty, they are highly incentivised to ensure those limits are not breached initially and, if they are, are quickly resolved before we exercise such contractual rights.

Given this approach, when structuring transactions upfront, we consider how that facility would be paid down should that counterparty not adhere to our pre-agreed risk limits. Importantly, we focus on ‘asset-backed’ transactions in that our financing is secured against assets that are of value and can be recovered to repay some or all of our capital. Therefore, a request to have our facility repaid can either occur through being refinanced or allowing those underlying assets, which are being regularly repaid, to repay our financed amount. This approach has ensured the Fund has never had a negative month from credit losses in its close to 8 year track record while investing through a variety of market cycles and economic conditions.

As 2024 commences, we remain vigilant of the outlook and are pleased to say all counterparts are operating within risk limits, and we do not see an elevated risk profile in our book.

We look forward to engaging with you throughout the year and wish all our investors a prosperous 2024.

Market Commentary
January 22, 2024
1/22/2024
read on
November 2023 – Market Commentary
14 December 2023
November 2023 – Market Commentary
14 December 2023

November 2023 – Market Commentary

The Fund delivered +0.72% in November, 9.35% over 12 months and 6.75% annualised since inception (April 2016), continuing to deliver over 5% net return above the RBA cash rate.

In December 2022, as we combed through the economic forecast of the major banks and research houses, we saw considerable consensus around the RBA cash rate peaking at 3.1% to 3.85% by March or April 2023, inflation falling to circa 3% by December 2023 and Australian residential property falling some 15%-20% peak to trough. With the benefit of time, we now know rates didn’t peak in early 2023, property didn’t fall as expected, and inflation didn’t subside despite the prolific use of monetary policy. Looking at 2024, reading these same reports, and undertaking our analysis, what actionable insights can we draw from these prior forecasts that haven’t proven to be particularly reliable?

Firstly, maintaining our focus on investing in shorter-dated opportunities, that is, positions where we can either renew or where capital is returned every 12-24 months. The Fund today (as at 30 November 2023) has a weighted average life of 0.57 years, which means 50% of the capital could, based on contractual terms, be returned within 6.80 months, enabling us to change how we invest as the outlook changes. Secondly, diversification or, more importantly, the lack of any large concentration in any sector or individual loan will reduce the risk of certain unforeseen economic events having a material impact on the Fund. Currently, the Fund’s largest single asset is 0.99% of the Fund. We believe further our focus on such elements can provide a strong foundation to navigate 2024 and continue delivering strong returns to our investors.

As investors may have observed, monthly returns will vary month to month, largely due to activity levels (recycling money from one maturing investment into a new investment), which results in the Fund holding higher than targeted cash levels throughout the month, detracting from returns in the short term. While we acknowledge this short-term impact, the imperatives around following our investment process and staying true to label in targeting assets that will perform through the economic cycle is of far greater significance. This rigour in our approach will mean we may say no to transactions in the late stages of due diligence, which causes higher levels of cash held for such investments to be deployed later. We believe making the right investment decisions rather than minimising cash held is of far greater significance in maximising returns over the long term

On behalf of the Manning Team, we thank all our clients for their ongoing support and wish everyone an enjoyable break over the festive season.

Market Commentary
December 14, 2023
12/14/2023
read on
Why ‘wait and see’ is the worst investment strategy ever
22 November 2023
Why ‘wait and see’ is the worst investment strategy ever
22 November 2023

Why ‘wait and see’ is the worst investment strategy ever

We’re all prone to pulling the plug on our portfolios from time to time, but it’s probably not the most productive approach. – Written by Chris Conway | Livewire Markets

There is one only thing you can control in investing. It’s not how an asset class will perform. It’s not what decision a company will make about capital management. It’s not how the terms of trade will affect the Aussie dollar.

It’s the amount of risk you are willing to take at any point in time. That’s it. That’s all you get to decide. Everything else is out of your control.

It’s also why saying, “I’m waiting to see what will happen with (insert random outcome here) before investing” is an inherently flawed investment strategy.

Firstly, you can’t possibly know what will happen and even if you did, you can’t know how markets will react.

Secondly, whilst you might be reducing your risk by doing nothing, you’re also completely eliminating access to any upside.

As such, the better investment strategy is to determine how much risk you are willing to take right now, and then find suitable investments to fulfil that risk profile.

Josh Manning, Manning Asset Management
Josh Manning, Manning Asset Management

This idea is not lost on Manning Asset Management founder and portfolio manager Josh Manning, who recalls presenting to institutional clients on the macro outlook 10-15 years ago, discussing how markets were ‘climbing the wall of worry’.

“What’s changed?” he asks emphatically.

“I can’t recall a period when I haven’t been worried since then.
The key is despite the noise, some of which is conjured up so that investors don’t move money away from certain parts of the market, is to assess one’s options and act rationally and objectively”.

Manning adds that he rarely hears people discuss what they are waiting for, and “if they can – i.e. for rate rises to finish – there is an element of belief that post that point, the outlook will be more certain or the entry point more attractive”.

In his experience, “there will always be something hanging over markets, and if in a rare Goldilocks scenario, markets would have likely adjusted (rallied) well before that scenario is clear”.

The misconceptions in fixed income and credit

As part of the conversation around staying appropriately invested, Manning is keen to dispel some misconceptions around fixed income and credit, one of which is that if the macroeconomic outlook worsens and loan defaults rise, an investor in a fixed income or credit fund will lose money.

He notes that whilst loans in these funds may come under more pressure, “this high-level belief ignores the structural protections such funds typically have. Arrears during COVID went up around three times, “did we have any losses?” “No”.

What determines losses is the quality of the book and protections in place, not arrears rates”.

Manning adds that when his fund invests in a pool of loans, “we expect a certain proportion to default and thus, we need to satisfy ourselves that even if those defaults increase several fold, our capital will be safe.

That is why we target investments that have a so-called ‘first loss’ buffer, which absorbs losses from loans defaulting and have ‘excess spread’, which means the pool of loans is yielding a higher gross yield than the corresponding financing costs so if a loss does occur, it can be paid for out of the excess income that the pool is generating”.

As for the current market conditions, Manning notes that he and his team are not seeing signs that the outlook is any worse than the modelled stress scenarios employed at the time the investments in the portfolio were made.

Heads I win, tails I win

In conducting scenario analysis, Manning believes that regardless of what happens next, fixed income and credit, if structured correctly, can deliver positive outcomes for investors – particularly when compared to other asset classes.

“If optimistic, then your immediate primary concern is participation in the upside, and in this regard, investing in credit, which is delivering circa 10% per annum, is a very healthy level of return in absolute and relative to other asset classes perspective.

If pessimistic, your immediate concern is around capital preservation with credit offering an ability for investors to go ‘up the capital structure’ rather than their return being determined by how a company’s equity performs after debt repayments, which takes priority over equity dividends. Credit is a more defensible and through-the-cycle investment if appropriately structured and managed”.

Without fear of ruffling a few equity investor feathers, Manning points out that in 2020, the ASX fell over 30% in response to an unknown risk.

“Equity investors saw their capital decrease to 70c on the dollar, while investors in floating rate asset-backed bonds issued by some of those companies saw their dollar modestly rise in value.

Today, the ASX is still only back at its prior early 2020 levels with those investors only enjoying bond-like dividends yet suffering huge swings in their capital balance, highlighting how powerful more capital stable investments can be in such times”.

On a more serious note, whilst Manning is advocating investors adopt fixed income and credit investments, he’s not advocating tipping out equity exposure altogether. Rather, that fixed income and credit can be a valuable ‘through the cycle’ contributor to a well-balanced portfolio.

“Credit assets can add that resilience either to increase defensive characteristics of ones portfolio or park capital until the outlook improves, given the attractive return profile and capital preservation characteristics of the asset class”.

What are the risks?

Whilst Manning asserts that credit assets, particularly those he invests in, are ‘through the cycle’ investments, nothing comes without risk.

He points out that even within the credit space, “we are seeing more cyclical lending propositions have stronger headwinds such as construction finance, non investment grade corporate debt and some sectors of the commercial property market”.

More broadly, the worst thing that could happen would be a major hit to unemployment – and even then, it would have to happen fast and garner no policy response from the government to do serious damage.

“For unemployment to double in a very short period and the Federal Government not implementing the policy tools utilised over the prior 20 years [would be the biggest risk].

While people can find a job, they typically continue consuming and paying their obligations, which supports business and broader economic activity alongside credit performance.

The other risk, of course, is that investors go into fixed income and credit investments, which are not robust to perform through the economic cycle or invest in such a concentrated way that a single idiosyncratic risk impacts their capital.

The importance of process

As noted above, one of the risks to avoid is going into investments that are not robust, but how does one manage this?

Manning has a process that they have developed over an extended period and, first and foremost, it involves turning down the marketing noise on any opportunity and going back to the source information for a true read.

“We assess if an asset will perform through the economic cycle based on our experience and in-house data sets.
If we do not have conviction around this, it doesn’t matter what the terms or broader opportunity are; it simply isn’t eligible for inclusion within the Manning Monthly Income Fund”.

If the asset passes that first test, the next step is sizing the investment in the portfolio, and Manning “have a clear risk appetite statement, the idea being if credit spreads are wide, that’s the market telling you that the outlook is likely less favourable and thus, taking less risk to achieve our return objective is appropriate.

On the other hand, if credit spreads are narrow, that’s saying the market views the outlook as favourable and it could be argued, is more likely to be caught off guard if a negative event occurs. Accordingly, in a low credit spread environment, it is vital to stick to your stated risk appetite and resist the temptation to chase higher yields with riskier counterparties or reduced covenants”.

As always, it seems discipline in executing the process is the key.

A recent example

Fixed income and credit are often hard to wrap our heads around, so I asked Manning for an example of a recent investment.

He shares that the team recently invested in a diversified pool of secured business loans.

“These loans are typically requested by growing businesses looking to replace existing equipment (think cars/utes/vans/light trucks/equipment and alike) or in addition to current assets.

From a business lending perspective outside mortgage-backed lending (which we also do), it is one of the lowest risk areas given such equipment is typically ‘mission critical’ – that is, the business cannot or will struggle to operate without it and via purchasing this asset, the business can typically increase revenues which in turn shall pay down the loan”.

Manning adds that whilst the loans within the investment have a positive selection bias (normally lending to growing businesses) which increases the chances of those borrowers being of better quality, “we also insisted on a range of structural protections that could see, in this case, arrears and loss rates rise circa 10-fold before our capital was at elevated risk”.

This is the critical element for investors to understand. Everything carries risk but there are protections that can be put in place to mitigate said risks, whilst still delivering a suitable return.

A track record of delivering income

Manning Asset Management is a specialist Fixed Income fund manager whose sole focus is the delivery of a strong and regular income stream to its investors through the economic cycle. Learn more by visiting our website or fund profile below.

News and Insight
November 22, 2023
11/22/2023
read on
October 2023 – Market Commentary
14 November 2023
October 2023 – Market Commentary
14 November 2023

October 2023 – Market Commentary

The Fund delivered +0.77% in October, 9.34% over 12 months and 6.73% annualised since inception (April 2016), continuing to deliver over 5% net return above the RBA cash rate.

We are pleased to report the Fund’s portfolio of assets continues to perform strongly, and we believe, is well-positioned to continue delivering strong income returns with capital stability. Despite the Fund’s higher expected returns, our approach to risk management remains unchanged. Manning has recently completed our quarterly Macroeconomic Assessment, aimed at gauging the influence of present and forecasted economic trends on our portfolio for both the immediate future and the long term. This thorough analysis is part of our commitment to understand the broader economic landscape and its potential effect on portfolio performance, particularly with regard to credit risk.

As we observe the macroeconomic backdrop, including issues around inflation, geopolitical conflict, productivity headwinds, and structural labour force changes, we are assessing what the implications are for Australia’s economy and our investment strategies. As readers will be aware, the bedrock of our investment strategy has always been to find and invest in investments that we believe will perform through the cycle, so moving through the various phases in the economic cycle shouldn’t necessarily require significant changes to our portfolio positioning. Given the RBA’s continued determination to tame inflation and slow the economy, it is key to consider how that contraction might impact the various components of the portfolio, and in turn how that might inform our investment decisions in the immediate future as well as medium term.

In determining credit quality, we assess a transaction via a bottom-up approach rather than top-down via a credit rating. While the assessment is an extensive process, two simplified examples of distinct elements that we consider illustrate how we aim to protect investor capital in times of stress.

Having made a detailed assessment of each of the Lenders we work with, we examine individual assets originated by a Lender by reviewing source information (loan application forms, credit files, and alike) that provides a rich insight into borrower quality. A testament to the value of this approach is looking back at the Global Financial Crisis, which was at least in part caused by loans to poor quality borrowers being bundled up into an often complex and opaque structure, and sold as relatively low risk, until eventually and unsurprisingly, many of those borrowers couldn’t make repayments.

We consider not only if borrowers can make their ongoing payments but also, if their circumstances change, what is the quality and extent of asset security is available to us to protect the portfolio from any credit loss. We believe this approach provides a vital sense of portfolio quality, which, in turn, informs our assessment of overall credit quality.

Another example would be understanding the alignment of incentives. Manning assesses the extent to which a Lender (and the principles behind it) has ‘skin in the game’. Which means what is the risk capital that the Lender itself is prepared to offer to support the performance of the assets they are generating? This is known as the amount of ‘risk retention’ that Manning and other market participants require from the sellers.

Given Australia’s position in the economic cycle and the clear intent of the RBA, management of credit quality remains a key focus. We advocate for investors to either do their own granular due diligence to assess the credit quality of their investments, or alternatively invest with those who have a proven track record in being able to do so.

Market Commentary
November 14, 2023
11/14/2023
read on
Why it’s now more important than ever to diversify
11 November 2023
Why it’s now more important than ever to diversify
11 November 2023

Why it’s now more important than ever to diversify

Is diversification really the only free lunch in investing?

While diversification is often termed ‘the only free lunch in investing’ I am not necessarily a believer. Diversification for diversification sake can mean investors invest in substandard assets that drag portfolio returns lower. We do subscribe to the view that sensible diversification that pays homage to the 80/20 rule (80% of the value from diversification can be achieved by implementing 20% of the possible diversification strategies) can add significant intrinsic value particularly when interwoven into ones asset allocation and asset selection process and, therefore, is a worthwhile pursuit.

How much and by what means diversification is achieved depends on an investor’s goals and highlights the value of good quality advice via an accredited financial advisor, broker or planner. While we have shown the table below since 2016, we cannot emphasise enough observing the asset allocations of some of the most sophisticated investors, such as the Future Fund can assist as a yardstick for investors to assess their own portfolio.

Source: Future Fund: Portfolio update to 30 September 2023
Source: Future Fund: Portfolio update to 30 September 2023

When to diversify

Since establishing the firm 8 years ago, we have spoken with hundreds of investors who, broadly, believe their portfolios require greater diversification. Many confess an overweight position in property and Australian shares, with the former being difficult and expensive to rebalance and, therefore, the latter being of primary interest. So, do investors diversify and if not, why not?

Everyone loves a stock story, with Australia home to many great emerging and emerged companies. On a spectrum, we can broadly think about them from being relatively stable, typically more mature companies that pay strong dividends (so called blue chip) to the more speculative which are targeting growth over profits without a dividend. In conversations with investors who hold an overweight position in these blue chips, we commonly find that while they equally recognise the need for diversification within their portfolio, they feel familiar with these stocks being household names that they have held for many years. Therefore, the thought of selling these shares to move into another asset class to achieve greater diversification is perceived as taking greater risk as it’s a move from the familiar to often something less familiar even though, rationally, the move is designed to lower portfolio risk.

If we consider the other end of the spectrum, the more emerging pre-profit companies have recently been heavily sold off and, in some cases, trading at a fraction of their prior highs. While their current valuation may be supported by the changes to fundamentals (high cash rate and therefore discount rate, in part justifying the lower price), we commonly hear that ‘we think it’s at its lows’ and therefore do not want to sell. In this regard, the fear of missing out on the upside dominates decision-making rather than an unbiased observation of the outlook.

So, when do investors typically diversify? In our experience, when we are in an equity market environment similar to what we are today, characterised by a broadly softening index and overall share prices. We have found that in these times, the rational thought process doesn’t play second fiddle to the fallacy of familiarity nor fear of missing out.

It is unrealistic to believe investor psychology, including fear of missing out or the fallacy of familiarity, does not influence investment decisions. Being aware of such biases and balancing them appropriately alongside objective investor rationale will enhance one’s investment credentials and likely portfolio outcomes.

A deep dive on credit as a diversifier

While we can’t speak to the other asset classes that the Future Fund invests in including Infrastructure, Timberland and broad Alternatives, we can provide a perspective on why more Australians are investing in Credit which in the Future Fund portfolio, occupies a larger share of the portfolio than both Australian Shares and Property, in stark contrast to many other investor portfolios. As outlined above, some are increasing their allocation due to overweight positions in other assets class. Another driver observed is the demographic shift with the so called baby boomers, who in general, are moving from a wealth accumulation to a wealth preservation mindset and thus, are drawn to fixed income/credit investments that prioritise capital preservation, are less influenced by the risk on/risk off cycles of equity markets and can deliver a ‘real’ rate of return, in particular shorter duration strategies where returns typically lift alongside inflation and higher global cash rates. This move towards fixed income and credit has seen an influx in new managers and investment opportunities in this space, we remind investors not all managers are of the same pedigree and for an asset class designed to preserve capital, investing with those that have a track record and the right incentives remains paramount.

News and Insight
November 11, 2023
11/11/2023
read on
The role of macroeconomic analysis in building a through-the-cycle portfolio
9 November 2023
The role of macroeconomic analysis in building a through-the-cycle portfolio
9 November 2023

The role of macroeconomic analysis in building a through-the-cycle portfolio

Join CIO Adrian Bentley and Head of Investment Solutions Juliet Shirbin, as they discuss the role of macroeconomic analysis in managing a through-the-cycle portfolio. The Manning Monthly Income Fund is designed to perform in all market conditions and maintain its return target of RBA cash rate + 5% net of fees.

Podcast:

https://open.spotify.com/show/3wUHgMkL5dFn9ZNywdLURK

News and Insight
November 9, 2023
11/9/2023
read on

Keep me updated on the Fund's latest returns

Subscribe to Manning monthly updates