Disclaimer

This website is intended for use by wholesale clients only, as defined in section 716G of the Corporations Act 2001. If you are not classified as a ‘wholesale client’ , you may not be eligible to access or invest in the products offered. By proceeding to use this website, you acknowledge that you qualify as a wholesale client and understand that the content and services provided here are exclusively for wholesale client use.

I CONSIDER MYSELF A WHOLESALE INVESTOR

News and Insights

Filters (3)
Sort
Showing 45 of 45
Clear all filters
October 2024 – Market Commentary
14 November 2024
October 2024 – Market Commentary
14 November 2024

October 2024 – Market Commentary

Australia’s credit market continues to experience increased interest and thus demand for assets, pushing listed credit asset yields lower, which has flowed through to private or unlisted markets. As a specialist in asset backed securities or lending to lenders,  we see increased competition both from other fund managers and domestic or international banks who are actively seeking to grow their portfolio of credit assets. While domestic banks are governed by APRA primarily under APS120, limiting their risk profile/appetite, some international banks have less restrictive policies/regulations or may even have access to alternate sources of capital (I.e. in house or related party investment funds) enabling a higher risk profile/appetite. It is, therefore, of the utmost importance that credit standards and access to transactions remain at the forefront of our approach.

The above dynamic is a natural progression of the Australian credit market moving towards a more mainstream asset class rather than a less prevalent ‘alternative’ in investor portfolios. This evolution dynamic shall drive more significant investment and sophistication by the Fund manager that operates within it, while also seeing investment models with high manager fees and yields lose relevance. Overall, we welcome this evolution as we are constantly reassessing to ensure our investment model is a beneficiary of such industry changes and thus, an attractive destination for transactions.

As our minds turn towards the festive season and end of the calendar year, we would like to thank all our investors and advisers for their increasing support and engagement. Our continued investment in our team and investment process is only possible with your support.

Market Commentary
November 14, 2024
11/14/2024
read on
High yields or high risk? What investors need to consider before investing in private credit
14 November 2024
High yields or high risk? What investors need to consider before investing in private credit
14 November 2024

High yields or high risk? What investors need to consider before investing in private credit

Manning Asset Management’s Josh Manning joins Livewire for a very different interview on the burgeoning private credit space.

Note: This interview was recorded on Thursday 10 October 2024.

Australians would have heard plenty of reasons over the last few months for investing in private credit right now.

Asset managers and financial advisers have repeatedly told us that they are allocating more and more to the asset class. The high-net-worth world is reportedly also positioning more of its portfolios towards private credit. And private credit managers – across the asset class spectrum – are quick to spout its benefits.

But what about the reasons why you shouldn’t invest in the asset class – particularly as new managers and lenders come to the fore?

In this interview, Livewire sat down with Manning Asset Management’s Josh Manning for his insights into the red flags he is seeing in the market right now, the biggest lies he’s been told (and repeatedly so) by lenders, and why the idea that there’s no cycle in private credit is a bit of a furphy.

Why you should be careful when investing in private credit

When Manning Asset Management was established back in 2015, private credit was a relatively unknown asset class and was not prevalent in many portfolios.

“You then went through a stage where people thought all private credit was interchangeable; construction finance was the same as asset-backed securities, or lending to lenders was the same as non-investment-grade corporate lending,” Manning said.
“Fast-forward to today, everyone’s talking about it, and there are lots of glossy brochures around the benefits of investing in it.”

In recent years in particular, we’ve seen an explosion in construction financing, at the same time as the Australian property market has continued on its path higher.

“What that means is if you purchase a property and then you hold it for 12 months, typically, you’re selling it for more than what you bought it for, and that covers up a lot of challenges in the fundamentals of that loan,” Manning said.

Going forward, Manning believes we are unlikely to see the same level of price appreciation – meaning the fundamentals are far more important.

“At the same time, we’re seeing this huge influx of capital and competition into that asset class. If there’s one takeaway, I think investors really need to think about that – how strong these actual loan opportunities are and how clear is that exit,” he said.

Does private credit have a cycle?

While we are taught that all asset classes have cycles – equities go through booms and busts, commodities ride the rollercoaster, and bonds, linked to interest rate expectations, also can swing wildly – whether or not private credit has a cycle remains up for debate.

“The idea that private credit doesn’t have a cycle is quite novel. I don’t necessarily agree with that,” Manning said.
“So, typical asset classes ride an economic cycle, boom to bust, it’ll oscillate in a range with returns there. Credit, I think, is a bit different.”

Manning argues that credit has had its own cycle as an asset class – from its very early stages to the growth curve that it is experiencing today. Shifting credit spreads, he argues, demonstrates that there is a cycle in private credit. Credit conditions, such as the terms of loan arrears, also appear to shift and shape, and thus have a cycle.

“At some stage, [we will see] a maturing of that cycle, and the characteristics of that maturing will be more institutionalisation of that asset class. This is not dissimilar to what we’ve seen in US and European markets,” he added.
“At that stage, there will be more divergence in those that prevail and those that don’t succeed in that environment.”

That said, he doesn’t believe the maturing or institutionalisation of the asset class will result in losses for investors.

“I don’t see there being this cataclysmic cliff that we’re going to drive off and huge losses,” he said.
“I think we’re seeing a huge increase in competition in the asset class – a lot of new managers, a lot of new players bidding for transactions. That will bid down credit spreads, that will bid down expected returns, and not everyone will be able to endure.”

For instance, those that relied on wide spreads to survive, with big upfront fees to propel their businesses, will likely face challenges going forward as spreads tighten.

And while more managers are likely to enter the space as investor interest skyrockets, fewer managers are likely to prevail. Although those that do will likely become more sophisticated in the face of tougher regulation, Manning said.

Livewire's Ally Selby and Manning Asset Management's Josh Manning
Livewire’s Ally Selby and Manning Asset Management’s Josh Manning

Red flags to spot the fakers from the true private credit winners

1. Documentation risk

As Manning explained, this is lending where the fundamentals of the documentation vary considerably in terms of quality. Lower quality or inadequate documentation may have worked in a buoyant market when the borrower can easily make repayments, and the investors are getting a good rate of return – but when there are headwinds, and the borrower is unable to make their loan payments, they may want to challenge those documents, and that is a risk.

2. Fraud

Whether we like it or not, there’s fraud in every asset class, Manning said, so investors need to think about this when assessing lenders and managers that they want to invest in.

3. Highly leveraged exposures

Highly subordinated or very leveraged exposures are another area that investors should be aware of. There’s a lot more risk, Manning said, and you may not be getting as rewarded for taking on this risk as you used to.

4. Arrogance

If investors get a “whiff of arrogance” from managers they are dealing with, that’s an important telltale warning sign and red flag, Manning said. The big banks, who are fantastic underwriters, are very careful and realise they can get bitten if they make the wrong decision. Private credit managers are also not immune to mistakes.

The big lies lenders are telling managers

As a specialist in asset-backed lending, Manning Asset Management looks at all the lenders across the Australian market and assesses whether or not they should be providing wholesale funding to them.

“We speak to probably 15 or 20 lenders a month. And there’s a mix of people that give us the bare bones, “This is what’s happening. These are the things in our book.” And there are others that put a marketing spin over it,” Manning said.

1. “We don’t have any problems in our book”

While this would be ideal, it’s probably a furphy, Manning said – noting that even if lenders make the best possible underwriting decision, facts can change and the borrower may not be able to make their repayments.

“That’s no fault of the lender. That’s a reality, and you need to just work with those borrowers and find a way to get your capital back,” he said.

If a lender is saying they “don’t have any problems” it either means they haven’t been lending for long enough, they’re not thinking about the risks, or they’re not being completely transparent.

2. “We’ve never had a loss”

Holding up the concept of zero losses as a holy grail is also fraught with risk, Manning said, as losses from lending and credit have been “very lumpy” throughout history.

“There’ll be periods where there are heightened losses. It’s not this beautiful smooth line through time that oscillates marginally,” he said.

Just because a lender hasn’t faced a loss so far, doesn’t mean they are immune from losses in the future – and the arrogance that they won’t is a red flag, Manning added.

Why investors should consider the asset class

Lending has been a very prevalent and sophisticated asset class in Australia over the last 40 years, Manning said, with well-understood risk management approaches, mechanisms and philosophies around transaction and lending management.

“I think, if you can really pull the complete understanding around that sophistication in the asset class and embed that in your business and how you run money, you can mitigate a lot of the risk,” he said.

Glossy marketing brochures, for all their issues, aren’t completely wrong – the asset class provides investors with consistent inflation-adjusted returns and income.

It doesn’t mean the asset class is immune from risks, and investors need to be careful about which managers they align themselves with as competition increases, but there’s still plenty of opportunity on offer – you just need to know where to look.

And remember, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

News and Insight
November 14, 2024
11/14/2024
read on
Hotspots of risk in Australia’s credit markets
14 October 2024
Hotspots of risk in Australia’s credit markets
14 October 2024

Hotspots of risk in Australia’s credit markets

With Australian credit the in-vogue topic, there is no shortage of compelling pitches for why to invest. Lending against residential property or to high-quality businesses, what could go wrong? Thankfully for many, very little of late. Although that partly is due to the favourable market conditions, including rising property prices, which have seen unimproved properties typically sell for more than they were purchased for with business conditions remaining strong. We are not anticipating a sharp turnaround in the asset classes’ fortunes, although there are some areas where risk is pooling that investors should watch out for.

Before wading in, it’s important to remember that these risks can be problematic in isolation or in combination. We view many current market participants overlooking these aspects, as frankly, they haven’t been bitten by them in the last 30+ years (since the early 90’s recession). This is why we have prioritised industry tenor in managing these assets, leveraging the extensive track records of our Investment Committee with members that predate this buoyant era.

Areas where risk is pooling

1. Loans where the exit is unclear: when making any credit investment, the exit must be clearly understood. Ideally, this involves some verifiable avenue rather than a ‘refinance’, which, by nature, is difficult to forecast as lending conditions or the fundamentals on which the lending decisions are made can change. For example, if the business is no longer profitable, a refinance of a business loan becomes challenging. That risk grows based on the tenor of a loan, given it is more difficult to forecast further into the future. I.e. a 1 year loan is far less risky than a 5 year equivalent. Other elements include security for the loan, with liquid hard assets like property, wheeled assets (cars, utes etc) providing a far more robust primary or secondary exit. Crucially here, there needs to be confidence around the future value of the asset. More recently developed technology assets like electric trucks or new solar panels present significant downside risks if the technology fails, as it can, and the security is worthless. The same can apply to construction finance, where the future value, either as a performing project that was completed on time and on budget or a problematic project that wasn’t, is unknown. Large loans or loans in areas where few lenders participate reduces the ability of a refinance and, therefore, on a like-for-like basis, are riskier. This risk can compound when loans do not need to be paid down over the term of the loan and only require interest payments (not amortising loans).

2. Documentation risk: when credit markets are propelled by strong economic fundamentals and shrinking credit spreads that push the face value of credit assets higher, it’s rare to hear of skirmishes between lenders and borrowers. Afterall, everyone is happy, with lenders and investors receiving strong returns and borrowers benefiting from cheaper financing. At some stage, that harmony will no longer prevail due to a borrower or lender issue at which time, parties will need to revisit the legally documented agreements to assess their rights. In some cases, this can expose previously overlooked elements which either party could potentially exploit, typically the borrower. Recent examples include the borrower attempting to change/reduce the security pool that supports the loan and allowing further debt to be taken on (for example as reported, Pluralsight in the United States and GenesisCare locally), which can include new parties who may not have much alignment of interests with current debt holders. For example, those new lenders may trigger a default to open up all possible avenues to get their hands on any assets available, with a recent unconfirmed example playing out in Australia.

3. Highly subordinated assets: it should come as little surprise that subordinated assets primarily in the form of subordinated notes in securitisation transactions, subordinated corporate debt or second mortgages against property assets shall be a natural collection point for risk. Very simply, when investing, you need to ensure the party negotiating or making the investment decisions has significant, relevant longitudinal experience and truly understands the investment and how it will perform today and in a less kind environment.

4. Fraud: while fraud is extremely uncommon, it is part of every financial market including even the most highly regulated markets. In our experience, Australian credit markets are well developed, with significant industry experience learnt from isolated examples, which has developed specific controls and monitoring practices which should not be discounted. Irrespective of where you invest, a keen eye for telltales and domain knowledge around current industry best practice controls remains paramount.

Seek out deep understanding and experience

The purpose of these points is not to suggest that credit does not have merit—quite the contrary. Rather, it is to underscore the importance of skilled, highly experienced teams in navigating these risks effectively to extract the full value from the asset class. Too many see credit investing as a simple investment endeavour, but it requires a deep understanding and experience to manage the potential challenges. It is also one where high historical returns may be manager skill or simply, excessive risk taking. We believe if you are a specialist with deep domain expertise and have been around long enough to understand risk, these compelling pitches can translate into attractive returns over time.

News and Insight
October 14, 2024
10/14/2024
read on
September 2024 – Market Commentary
14 October 2024
September 2024 – Market Commentary
14 October 2024

September 2024 – Market Commentary

Manning invests in a range of asset-backed portfolios which we quantitatively and qualitatively assess to determine their resilience and overall credit quality.

Central to the Fund’s strategy is rigorous transaction analysis and robust structural protection mechanisms across all assets. Each investment is evaluated with stress testing and credit protections embedded in the transaction documentation, ensuring comprehensive risk management safeguards our investments.

As part of our analysis, the following are some of the factors considered:

  • Borrower Default Rates and Asset Value: Increases in borrower default rate assumptions and a reduction in asset / collateral value that reflect prolonged recessionary conditions and rating agency criteria. Further haircuts will be assumed on assets that are likely to experience more volatile valuations during periods of stress. Likewise, individual borrower and loan characteristics will be considered in the determination of stressed default rates.
  • Asset Yield: A reduction in asset yield caused by market fluctuations and rising arrears, and investors demanding increased margins resulting from a trigger event or deteriorating economic conditions.
  • Delays in Liquidation: We assume significant delays in liquidating assets that are securing underlying loans. We incorporate the accrued interest on defaulted loans during this liquidation period in our analysis.

The Manning Team models varying degrees of economic stress to estimate expected losses and determine required structural protections, such as the arrears tolerance on underlying loans and subordination prerequisites. Unlike direct lender funds (funds where the manager is also the lender/originator of the loans), where investor capital losses typically occur immediately if a borrower defaults and the asset value falls below the loan amount, our structures offer additional protection. In an asset-backed structure, investor capital is at risk only when the first loss or subordinated capital is eroded. We have implemented structural protections that trigger amortisation before losses or arrears reach a level that threatens investor capital. These protections prioritise investor interests and mitigate downside risks.

These are a sample of the measures we implement to protect investor capital and have been instrumental in maintaining our 8+ year track record of achieving the Fund’s RBA cash rate 5% net of fees objective through the economic cycle.

Market Commentary
October 14, 2024
10/14/2024
read on
July 2024 – Market Commentary
14 September 2024
July 2024 – Market Commentary
14 September 2024

July 2024 – Market Commentary

Examining the Australian economy, the case for the RBA cash rate falling in the near term remains overstated. In early 2024, we outlined two-way risk for the RBA cash rate (a chance it may rise or fall), with the likelihood of an increase fading although not dismissed. For credit investors, it remains essential to exercise caution in sectors most affected by the higher RBA cash rate and cost of living pressures. Most notably, consumer loans, which the Fund has not held for over 12 months, and construction finance/property development which the Fund is completely precluded from investing in due to the cyclical and high-risk nature of these investments. Furthermore, the case for active management, as demonstrated by the fund’s track record and varying sector exposures through time emphasises the importance of shifting away from certain market areas towards those that generally present lower risk, thereby achieving better risk-adjusted returns.

In the prior month, we assessed 14 opportunities for inclusion within the portfolio with strong market activity. These opportunities include transactions where our higher yielding fund can provide further credit support to the Manning Monthly Income Fund, lowering the investment’s risk profile.

During the month, we changed our External Valuation agent from Eticore to Nuwaru, who acts as our tax advisor and shall be complemented by an additional specialist provider in the coming weeks.

The Fund continues to grow its client base of high net worth and smaller institutional clients, resulting in further investment portfolio diversification.

Market Commentary
September 14, 2024
9/14/2024
read on
August 2024 – Market Commentary
14 September 2024
August 2024 – Market Commentary
14 September 2024

August 2024 – Market Commentary

As we take a broader look at Australia’s current economic position, we recognise some typical signs of a contractionary phase, such as a softening labour market, higher interest rates, and changing business conditions and sentiment. Historically, Australia’s economic contractions from peak to trough have averaged three quarters, followed by an expansion phase lasting around 15 quarters on a GDP per capita basis (Melbourne Institute Phases of the Australian Business Cycle, January 2024). With the last peak in December 2020, we are now considering when we might reach the trough and see more accommodative policies, including a lower RBA cash rate to support employment and business conditions.

The labour market will be a key indicator in this process. A tight labour market has been a significant factor in driving services inflation, which affects various sectors like healthcare, education, and hospitality, as well as consumer spending. As this dynamic shifts and households face fewer employment opportunities or lower incomes due to rising underemployment and unemployment, we expect inflationary pressures to ease, setting the stage for potential monetary policy easing and a lower RBA cash rate.

Government spending and fiscal policy will also play a crucial role in shaping employment conditions. While incremental spending may delay monetary policy easing, it’s important to balance economic perspectives with societal needs. Currently, we view fiscal policy as accommodative, which may postpone an RBA cash rate decrease.

We have observed many companies implementing cost-cutting measures and redundancies, with recruitment agencies reporting a weaker appetite for new hires. Among the circa 36,000 loans we monitor monthly, arrears rates are slightly increasing but remain within acceptable limits for all positions in the Fund. These observations, though anecdotal, align with our view and are likely to be reflected in widely discussed market data in the coming months.

We believe the conditions for RBA rate cuts are gradually forming. As noted earlier, it will take time for the data to confirm this and for the RBA to gain confidence in adopting a more accommodative policy in the medium term.

From the Fund’s perspective, this outlook calls for heightened sensitivity to areas most affected by weakening GDP, employment conditions, and contractionary policies. Our cautious approach, maintained over the past 18 months as we exited consumer loans in the portfolio, ensures the Fund’s resilience in navigating economic challenges. The Manning Monthly Income Fund has an unwavering commitment to offering investors a truly ‘through the cycle’ investment proposition, focusing on capital preservation and delivering a strong, consistent monthly income stream.

Market Commentary
September 14, 2024
9/14/2024
read on
June 2024 – Market Commentary
22 August 2024
June 2024 – Market Commentary
22 August 2024

June 2024 – Market Commentary

The growing prevalence of credit or private credit within investor portfolios has materially contributed towards a better understanding of the asset class. As mentioned in our prior month’s commentary, investors now appreciate that credit isn’t homogenous but rather made up of differing risk-return subsectors. It has also led to investors being more skilled in asking the right questions of fund managers that operate in this space, which helps them discern who is swimming with their swimmers on and who is either blissfully unaware or neglecting to check (a reference to the Warrens Buffets quote ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked’).

Over our 8 years, we have suggested that investors scrutinise any potential credit fund manager by understanding, as a minimum, the following areas.

  1. What does the credit fund actually invest in and am I comfortable with the risk profile of those assets? Are you financing an asset that in a variety of scenarios can be relied upon to repay the initial loan? This may involve lending to a good quality company which has predictable, stable, long-term revenue streams, a quality project that, even if it is not prima facie successful, has a residual value that can be realised or, in our case, a sufficiently robust pool of underlying loans which can be paid down to extinguish our investment amount. This assessment is the most important factor for investors, as it is the most influential factor driving potential investment outcomes.
  2. What fees is the fund manager charging and how much alignment does that create between fund manager and underlying investors? Notably, does the fund manager charge fees upfront which are not passed through to investors which we believe does not create alignment? We believe only through alignment, can investors get sufficient comfort that their money is in safe hands.
  3. What other incentives does the fund manager have? Are they exclusively incentivised based on the quality of the investor outcomes, or is investor capital boosting the value of the fund manager’s equity in another company? With unlimited upside for equity holders, it’s irrational to believe that those with the lending decisions will not be distracted at best or inappropriately incentivised at worst when they determine how that investor capital is used if they hold equity in the company receiving the funding.

(Our response to the above would be 1, Manning invests in a range of asset-backed portfolios which we quantitatively and qualitative assess to determine their reliance and overall credit quality. We regard this as our core competence. Despite 8 years of various cycle dynamics, we have never had a negative return from credit. 2, All fees are charged at the Fund level i.e. we do not receive any upfront fees, with our fees including a small performance fee element. We believe this structure creates the greatest alignment with investors. 3. Manning has a strict Conflicts of Interest Policy and as a guiding principle, does not take equity positions in underlying lender businesses given the innate conflicts it creates.)

As a final point, we have been impressed by the sophistication of the Australian financial advice ecosystem. We regularly face very detailed and on-point questions about our strategies. Should an investor not be confident about the answers to any of the above questions for a fund in which they invest, then we urge those investors to reach out to their trusted adviser. Seeking advice can provide reassurance and ensure you invest with a fund manager who can perform when the tide is both in and out.

As the Australian credit markets continue to grow, investors will continue to become more discerning, which, in our view, will only enhance the attractiveness of the asset class and the quality of the fund managers who succeed in it.

Market Commentary
August 22, 2024
8/22/2024
read on
May 2024 – Market Commentary
18 June 2024
May 2024 – Market Commentary
18 June 2024

May 2024 – Market Commentary

The Fund delivered +0.79% in May, 9.56% over 12 months and 6.94% annualised since inception (April 2016), continuing to deliver over 5% net return above the RBA cash rate.

In our eight years, credit has never been a more in favour asset class than currently experienced. Investors are drawn to the potential for higher absolute expected returns, given the higher cash rates globally, capital stability vs other asset classes, and the need for income in their portfolios. Most encouragingly, the asset class is no longer viewed as a single bucket, rather, there are underlying sectors along a risk/return continuum, much like what is seen in other asset classes. By understanding these credit sectors, investors can be more discerning about how they approach credit and identify the area best suited to their objectives.

In our view, within private markets, three main credit subsectors are prevalent within Australia, each with unique investor considerations.

  1. Non-investment grade corporate loans: Companies who view credit funds as an alternative to seeking finance from a traditional bank. As a traditional bank is typically cheaper than a credit fund, these companies may look to such funds when they are outside the appetite of traditional banks, either due to credit or non-credit reasons, e.g. ESG related reasons, or the company simply wants a more flexible or timely solution. Lending decisions of the credit fund are based on the fundamentals of the company, which inform the risk/attractiveness of the loan. Leveraged finance is common within this sector, as it provides loans to assist private equity firms in purchasing companies that use significant debt capital to do so. While banks do play in this space, the key challenge in this sector is diversification as investor capital can be spread across a limited number of larger deals, meaning any one event can be impactful, and the chance of capital loss heightened if the company taking out the loan fails, given there can be few assets left to repay investors.
  1. Construction finance: Involves lending to Property Developers to acquire land, seek planning approval to change or enhance the use of that asset, construct or redevelop and then sell the finished product, with financing being either a part of this process or in its entirety. Australian bank’s appetite for such lending varies significantly given the macroeconomic outlook, as highlighted in our article Elevated Stakes: Assessing the risk premium of construction finance. Lending decisions are based on the likely value of the project once completed rather than the fundamentals of the property developer’s business. Its risk profile and challenges are akin to those of the prior sector, which is around diversification and higher loss given default. Most importantly, we see Construction Finance and Non-investment grade lending as having cyclical characteristics, which can be more problematic if an investor doesn’t have diversification in their holdings (i.e. 100+ underlying loans).
  1. Asset-backed securities: This involves providing wholesale finance to banks and non-banks so that they can originate loans themselves. The underlying loans secure these asset-backed securities, and thus, lending decisions are primarily made based on the quality of the lender and the underlying pool of loans. For example, a residential mortgage is viewed more favourably than an unsecured business loan on a like-for-like basis. Manning is a specialist in this sector, as it can offer yields that are nearly equivalent to those of other sectors, although it is far more robust in nature and less cyclical in its performance. For example, if the lender who receives the financing defaults, a more readily available pool of underlying assets can be realised to repay the debt. The key challenge in this sector is access to opportunities as lenders discern who they will share their information with and work with. Asset-backed financing has a long history in Australia and Manning utilise all available historical performance data which affords us the ability to robustly back-test pools of assets against future possible economic scenarios.

Across all sectors, the terms that govern how the money is extended to the recipient (company, property developer, or lender) are very important and vary significantly in nature. Manager skills via an established team with decades of experience in the space remain of the utmost importance.

As an investment house, we believe the level of capital stability an investor achieves will ultimately be based on the level of assets backing that loan. In this regard, asset-backed securities offer the strongest level of investor protection, followed by construction finance and then non-investment grade corporate loans providing the least.

At Manning we prioritise capital stability ahead of all else, a testament to this is the Fund’s 8+ year track record that has resulted in no negative months from credit/loss of capital. We are pleased to report the Fund’s portfolio of assets continues to perform strongly, and we believe, is well positioned to continue delivering strong income returns with capital stability.

Market Commentary
June 18, 2024
6/18/2024
read on
April 2024 – Market Commentary
17 May 2024
April 2024 – Market Commentary
17 May 2024

April 2024 – Market Commentary

The Fund delivered +0.86% in April, 9.57% over 12 months and 6.91% annualised since inception (April 2016), continuing to deliver over 5% net return above the RBA cash rate.

We are pleased to report the Fund’s portfolio of assets continues to perform strongly, and we believe, is well-positioned to continue delivering strong income returns with capital stability. Despite the Fund’s higher expected returns, our approach to risk management remains unchanged.

Monetary Policy and global cash rates once again dominate mainstream media, with no shortage of market commentators voicing their perspective. As discussed in our article ‘Arrears rising, should credit investors be concerned?’ published mid-March, we outlined the ‘two-way’ risk within the RBA cash rate setting: the chance that the RBA cash rate could rise further. More commentators now subscribe to this view, moving away from the near-unanimous belief that rates will be imminently cut, citing a material possibility that interest rates could rise further.

Investors are keen observers of interest rate settings and likely changes, given their impact on asset prices such as shares and bonds. As short-duration investors, we are not relying on correctly picking interest rate movements to drive our returns, instead, we focus on what these changes mean for the health of the Australian economy, i.e., what they say about the bigger macroeconomic picture and its implications for the Fund.

In the previously mentioned article, we explained that factors like low unemployment, low productivity growth, and high wage growth contribute to inflation over time. These slow-moving drivers of inflation take time to appear in inflation data and eventually subside. As a result, we believe the RBA cash rate will remain elevated for some time and financial challenges to continue. In other words, households and businesses experiencing financial stress now have a long road ahead before economic conditions improve.

From a credit investor perspective, given this outlook, higher quality loans and counterparties in non-cyclical areas must be favoured over assets that offer marginally higher yields.  We acknowledge that further incremental yield may be left on the table by not taking such risks, although, on a risk-adjusted basis, such decisions are prudent and consistent with our strong focus on capital preservation and unblemished 8-year credit history. As readers will be aware, the bedrock of the Fund’s investment strategy has always been to find and invest in assets that we believe will perform through the cycle. By maintaining portfolio discipline and quality, should conditions deteriorate further, an investor in the Fund is better placed to maximise the ‘through the cycle’ return potential of the asset class.

We are pleased to report a strong pipeline of new assets being considered for the Fund, with mortgages and, to a lesser extent, business loans being our preferred areas, given their powerful capital protection features. Consumer loans are less favoured.

Market Commentary
May 17, 2024
5/17/2024
read on

Keep me updated on the Fund's latest returns

Subscribe to Manning monthly updates